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As artificial intelligence plays an increasingly central role in war and conflict, experts discuss its long-term impact on global politics, examining how the technology could redefine state power, military strategies, and international relations.
Erica Lonergan addresses the profound implications of advanced artificial intelligence tools on modern conflict, highlighting their increasing deployment on battlefields globally. She cites examples such as Ukraine's integration of AI for drone operations, intelligence fusion, and lethal strike capabilities, and Israel's alleged use of AI-powered decision-support systems like “Lavender” and “Gospel” for targeting in Gaza. Lonergan also mentions the reported use of Anthropic's Claude, integrated with Palantir's Maven Smart System, by the US military for generating thousands of targeting recommendations in various operations. While acknowledging the narrative of a “new revolution in warfare,” she cautions against hyperbolic and generalized claims about AI's impact. Lonergan clarifies that AI is a dual-use, general-purpose complex information technology, not inherently a weapon, and encompasses a diverse array of evolving technologies (e.g., machine learning, deep learning, generative AI). She further stresses that the real-world application and consequences of AI in military contexts are highly contingent on a complex interplay of technological capabilities, organizational structures, socio-cultural factors, and continuous adaptation and refinement by skilled personnel. This nuanced perspective underscores the need for careful analysis beyond mere technological hype.
Stephen Weymouth discusses the growing tension between governments and private AI firms, exemplified by the Trump administration's designation of Anthropic as a “supply chain risk.” This action followed Anthropic's refusal to remove conditions on its Claude AI model—specifically, prohibitions against mass surveillance of Americans and fully autonomous weapons without human oversight—for military contracts. Weymouth argues that this incident transcends a typical procurement dispute, as the government resorted to national security tools like foreign threat designations and wartime emergency statutes, which were repurposed beyond their original intent. He highlights a critical institutional void in the AI era: a small number of private firms now control essential AI value chain inputs, including advanced chips, compute infrastructure, and frontier models. This concentration of indispensable AI capabilities empowers private companies to shape the boundaries of sovereign military power, creating significant economic and security vulnerabilities for states. The conflict between the state's reliance on these technologies and its desire for control suggests that such confrontations are likely to intensify as AI becomes more deeply embedded in critical military and intelligence functions, challenging existing frameworks for governance and oversight.
Sarah Godek examines how the global race to integrate AI into military strategy will inevitably create a strategic divide, with many countries lagging due to the overwhelming dominance of the US and China in essential AI inputs. These inputs include sophisticated algorithms, extensive data, and immense “compute” (processing power). She notes that while governments worldwide are adopting AI for various strategic applications—from air defense and targeting to nuclear weapons research and adversary movement prediction—their ability to do so effectively is constrained by access to these core components. The US excels in algorithms and compute, while China leads in data and overall AI research and development. Most nations lack the colossal financial resources, specialized technical expertise, and robust infrastructure (such as advanced data centers and domestic chip manufacturing capabilities) required to develop sovereign AI. This forces them to depend on US and Chinese technologies, thereby diminishing their autonomy and increasing the leverage of these superpowers. Godek further illustrates this by noting the US ban on advanced AI chip exports to China, which has caused bottlenecks for Chinese models and spurred domestic chip production efforts. The strategic benefits derived from AI will increasingly be determined by control over and access to these critical AI inputs, deepening dependencies for middle and small powers and exacerbating the geopolitical power imbalance.