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Examining survey data from corporate executives, the authors find widespread but uneven AI adoption, positive labor productivity gains varying across sectors and strengthening in 2026, and limited near-term job loss alongside compositional shifts in jobs as a result of AI.
The research, based on a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives, reveals significant variation in the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) among firms. Over half of these companies have already invested in AI, indicating a widespread integration trend. However, smaller firms are typically in the nascent stages of AI adoption, highlighting an uneven distribution of technological advancement across the corporate landscape.
The study identifies positive labor productivity gains attributable to AI, which are not uniform but vary considerably across different economic sectors. These gains are projected to intensify in 2026, with particularly pronounced effects expected within high-skill services and the finance industry, underscoring AI's transformative potential in these knowledge-intensive sectors.
Crucially, these productivity improvements are not primarily a result of increased capital investment by firms. Instead, they stem from enhancements in revenue-based total factor productivity. This indicates that AI is fostering innovation-oriented and demand-driven channels, suggesting a more fundamental shift in how businesses operate and generate value rather than just augmenting existing processes with more capital.
The research uncovers a 'productivity paradox,' where the perceived gains in productivity are often greater than the measured, actual productivity gains. This discrepancy is likely attributed to a delay in the realization of revenues and other tangible benefits from AI investments, suggesting that the full economic impact of AI may take time to materialize and be accurately measured.
Regarding labor markets, the findings suggest minimal aggregate employment declines in the near term due to AI. While larger corporations anticipate some workforce reductions as a result of AI implementation, smaller firms, conversely, foresee modest job growth. This indicates a nuanced impact on employment, with varying effects depending on company size and strategic approach to AI.
AI is driving a significant compositional reallocation of labor, both within individual firms and across the broader economy. There is a noticeable decline in demand for routine clerical roles, while concurrently, the demand for skilled technical positions is on the rise. The study further provides an index that categorizes job functions most vulnerable to negative impacts from AI, offering insights into future workforce planning.