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Atrocity Alert is a weekly publication by the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, highlighting situations where populations are at risk of, or are enduring, mass atrocity crimes. This edition, No. 495, addresses the dual threats of Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change, detailing how rapidly advancing AI systems and the intensifying climate crisis pose growing risks to civilians and could exacerbate existing atrocity threats globally.
This section highlights intensified calls for stronger global AI governance amidst warnings from AI researchers and tech companies about autonomous systems. It emphasizes that beyond future speculative threats, AI is actively being used by state and non-state actors to facilitate human rights violations, breaches of International Humanitarian Law (IHL), and atrocity crimes. The UN Secretary-General and High Commissioner for Human Rights advocate for urgent global cooperation and robust safeguards. Examples include the use of AI-guided targeting systems by Russian drones in Ukraine, mass surveillance and target identification by Israeli forces in Gaza, and AI-assisted targeting by the US in Iran, with one instance leading to allegations of war crimes. AI also enhances surveillance capabilities, as seen in China's monitoring of the Uyghur population. Furthermore, the UN Working Group on mercenaries notes AI's transformation of private military and security operations, enabling 'technology-enabled attacks' and 'disinformation for hire' campaigns that manipulate narratives and facilitate gender-based violence. The article urges governments to regulate AI through a human rights lens, hold developers accountable, and cease the transfer of technologies that enable abuses, while ensuring AI systems are designed with human rights and IHL compliance in mind.
This part focuses on how the climate crisis, particularly the strong El NiƱo phenomenon, acts as a 'threat multiplier' for atrocity crimes, severely impacting conflict-affected populations, including refugees and displaced persons. Rising global temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and resource scarcity intensify risks of hunger, poverty, and conflict. The current El NiƱo is expected to significantly disrupt rainfall and temperature patterns into early 2027, leading to increased droughts, floods, and extreme heat, which the World Food Programme predicts could push an additional 49 million people into acute food insecurity. These impacts are already evident in atrocity-prone areas like the Horn of Africa, where El NiƱo-linked flooding threatens communities already struggling with conflict and food insecurity, potentially displacing millions. In the Central Sahel, agricultural drought and food insecurity, exacerbated by El NiƱo, compound existing atrocity risks. Myanmar (Burma) faces further threats to food production and livelihoods amid war crimes and crimes against humanity due to rainfall variability, drought, and flooding. Haiti is experiencing heightened drought risks, reminiscent of past El NiƱo events that caused severe harvest collapses and doubled food insecurity, now worsened by gang violence. The article calls on member states to integrate climate resilience into atrocity prevention, support anticipatory action in at-risk countries, and ensure climate finance, adaptation strategies, and early warning systems incorporate human rights, conflict sensitivity, and atrocity risk analysis.