A China Telecom report says inference will be 80% of the country's compute market by 2029. Europe's gigafactories are due online in mid-2028.
China's artificial intelligence sector is undergoing a significant strategic pivot, shifting its primary focus from the development and competition surrounding large language models to the widespread deployment and commercialization of AI agents. This critical transition is highlighted in a recent report from the China Telecom Research Institute, a prominent research arm of the state-owned telecommunications carrier. The report, which gained attention through its broadcast by state media such as CCTV, projects a dramatic change in the country's computing power market. By 2029, the Institute anticipates that 'inference' β the process of running an AI model to make predictions or decisions β will dominate the market, accounting for a substantial 80% of China's overall computing demand. This figure signifies a fundamental reorientation, indicating that the operational use of AI, rather than just its initial training phase, will become the primary driver of computing needs. The distinction between 'training' and 'inference' is crucial here. Training involves the computationally intensive, often one-time process of building an AI model from vast datasets. In contrast, inference represents the ongoing, recurrent costs associated with each instance a model is utilized by an end-user or system, effectively transforming a capital expenditure into a continuous operating expense. This shift towards inference-driven growth implies an increasing maturity in China's AI ecosystem, moving beyond foundational research to practical, scalable applications. The report further estimates that Chinese technology companies are poised to invest approximately 600 billion yuan, equivalent to about $89 billion, into AI technologies this year alone. This substantial investment represents more than a tenth of the total investment across the entire country, underscoring the strategic importance China places on AI development and deployment. In stark contrast, Europe's approach to meeting the burgeoning demand for AI computing power appears to be on a different timeline and scale. The European Commission has initiated plans for up to seven 'gigafactories' β large-scale data centers designed for advanced computing, particularly for AI workloads. This ambitious program, valued at EUR 30 billion, aims to secure EUR 10 billion from public funds and an additional EUR 20 billion from private investors. However, a critical detail emerges: only about EUR 1 billion of this ambitious budget has been firmly committed to date. To put this into perspective, China's projected AI spending for the current year suggests it expends an amount equivalent to Europe's secured funding approximately every five days. Europe's proposed timeline for these gigafactories also faces challenges. Bidding for the projects commenced in July, with applications set to close in November. Awards are anticipated in early 2027, followed by construction, with the goal of having the machines operational by mid-2028. While this timeline theoretically places Europe's infrastructure online a year before China's projected inference crossover, it heavily relies on the assumption that no further delays will occur. The article points out that delays have already plagued the initiative, including postponements in the bidding process and evaluation criteria, as well as a significant drop in initial interest from around 70 potential companies to roughly ten expected bidders. Furthermore, a substantial portion of the public funding (EUR 10 billion) is contingent upon a long-term budget for 2028 to 2035, which has yet to be approved by member states. The economic landscape for AI compute is also evolving, with the article noting that the highest margins are increasingly found in inference rather than in model training, as companies prioritize optimizing existing models for efficiency. This context highlights a strategic misalignment: while China is forecasting and preparing for a future driven by running AI models at scale, Europe is still navigating the preliminary stages of establishing the physical infrastructure for its AI ambitions. The disparity in current investment levels, strategic focus, and the progress of infrastructure development underscores a potential widening gap in AI capabilities between the two regions.