Despite many doomsday scenarios, a new CBRE report projects that artificial intelligence will contribute to job growth in the office sector, consequently reducing vacancy rates and increasing demand for physical workspace in the coming years.
CBRE's Counter-Intuitive Forecast for AI and Office Jobs
While conventional wisdom warns of AI-driven job losses and reduced office space needs, a recent CBRE analysis presents an optimistic view. It predicts that the artificial intelligence revolution will actually foster an increase in office employment, thereby positively impacting demand for commercial real estate.
Minimal Job Vulnerability & New AI-Supported Roles
The CBRE report indicates that only 5% of U.S. office jobs are highly susceptible to being replaced by AI. Conversely, 18% are expected to adapt and even flourish with AI integration, while the majority (77%) will experience changes but not severe disruption. This is partly due to many AI-vulnerable roles already being remote, minimizing impact on office headcount, and AI also creating new office-based positions like financial analysts and AI engineers.
Historical Parallels in Technological Job Creation
Drawing on historical patterns, John Morris of CBRE highlights that past technological advancements, such as the internet and smartphones, have consistently led to a net increase in job opportunities. He asserts that AI is poised to continue this trend, with its benefits for the office market outweighing potential drawbacks.
Positive Outlook for Office Job Growth and Vacancy Reduction
CBRE projects a modest but steady 0.9% annual growth in the office workforce over the next five years. This growth, driven partly by AI companies, is anticipated to significantly decrease the U.S. office vacancy rate from 18.3% in 2026 to 14.5% by 2031, outpacing the overall U.S. job market's expected annual growth of 0.6%.
Surging Business Applications as an Indicator of AI-Driven Expansion
A key indicator of AI's positive influence on job creation is the marked rise in new business applications in the U.S., increasing from over 400,000 in 2022 (ChatGPT's launch year) to more than 500,000 by 2025. This surge implies a tightening market for prime office space, potentially leading to increased demand for secondary office properties as well.
