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China's military is strategically investing in artificial intelligence (AI) across its forces, particularly in areas like naval air defense and drone swarms, even as analysts suggest it lags behind the United States in overall military AI capabilities. A Taiwan-based analyst posits that China may have surpassed the US specifically in AI for drone swarms, showcasing a targeted approach amidst broader challenges.
The Chinese navy is actively integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into its advanced weaponry, exemplified by the guided-missile frigate Qinzhou. This vessel is being equipped with an AI algorithm designed to enhance air defense capabilities by identifying and mitigating blind spots during combat engagements. State-run media and military experts hail this development as a significant breakthrough, positioning the Qinzhou among the most technologically advanced frigates currently in service, marking a major leap in its integrated combat capability.
Despite China's ambition to achieve "intelligentized" warfare, particularly in preparation for potential conflicts in regions like the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, analysts note a pragmatic and cautious approach. Rather than pursuing broad AI dominance or expecting immediate parity with the United States, China is making selective investments. Experts like Sophie Wushuang Yi from Tsinghua University point out that while intelligentized warfare concepts have been in official defense papers since 2019, academic literature is frank about China's current inability to close the overall military AI capability gap with the U.S.
Artificial intelligence is rapidly expanding its influence across various sectors of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). A notable advancement is in drone swarm technology, where a PLA institution demonstrated in January the capability for a single soldier to oversee approximately 200 autonomous drones simultaneously during a test run. Beyond drone swarms, AI is also playing an increasingly vital role in military space operations, managing complex orbital maneuvers, and in cyberspace for planning and executing operations against critical information infrastructure. This integration allows the military to potentially achieve a faster "observe-orient-decide-act" loop than human-controlled systems.
PLA leadership places a high value on AI-driven decision-making, primarily due to a perceived lack of extensive battlefield experience among its personnel, a contrast to their American counterparts. The military's AI priorities include enhancing computer networks with AI layers, aggregating vast amounts of data for analysis, and advancing the autonomy of unmanned systems, such as uncrewed underwater vehicles. However, Sam Bresnick of Georgetown University highlights a significant internal concern: the Chinese government fears that AI could generate or use information that challenges the ideals of Xi Jinping and the Communist Party, leading to a strong desire to maintain stringent control over AI outputs.
According to a March 17 study by the Modern War Institute at West Point, the United States currently holds a "commanding" lead over China in military artificial intelligence. This advantage is underscored by the sheer scale of infrastructure, with the U.S. possessing over 4,000 data centers compared to China's approximately 400. Furthermore, U.S. export controls on advanced semiconductors, in place for four years, continue to impede Beijing's access to critical hardware necessary for advanced AI development. This technological disparity creates significant hurdles for China in achieving broad AI parity.
Despite the broader U.S. lead in military AI, Chen Yi-fan, an assistant professor at Tamkang University in Taiwan, suggests that China may have indeed surpassed the United States in the specialized field of AI for drone swarms. With the operational deployment of drone carriers, the PLA has potentially taken a lead in this particular category of AI military applications. This focused advancement in drone swarm technology, as demonstrated by the Qinzhou frigate's combat drill in the contested South China Sea, indicates China's ability to achieve targeted superiority in specific AI domains.