Controlling chips is no longer enough. An analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies argues that the strategic competition between the United States and China is entering a new phase, where the real prize is the ability to build the global infrastructure underpinning artificial intelligence. The outcome could reshape international power dynamics while increasingly affecting economies and societies through what is now being described as Tokenpolitik.
A new term: Tokenpolitik
Tokenpolitik is introduced as a new concept entering the vocabulary of artificial intelligence and international relations, signifying the increasingly central role of AI in global power dynamics.
Origin of the concept
This concept is detailed in an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), co-authored by Benjamin Jensen and Yasir Atalan, experts in defense, security, and data.
A New Strategic Concept
The authors propose that the United States needs a new grand strategic vision, Tokenpolitik, to coordinate government agencies, allies, and the private sector in order to effectively compete with China in developing the global AI infrastructure.
Why Tokens Matter
Tokens are the fundamental units AI models use to process information. The speed and efficiency of generating and processing these tokens directly impact a system's cost-effectiveness and competitiveness, making them a crucial technical element.
Beyond Algorithms: The Infrastructure Race
The competition extends beyond just algorithms to the entire underlying infrastructure, including advanced semiconductors, data centers, electricity grids, computing capacity, and cooling systems, which form the strategic backbone of the 21st century.
China’s Full-Stack Strategy
China is pursuing a comprehensive 'full-stack' AI strategy, investing across the entire technology spectrum from chip manufacturing to cloud services, and exporting this integrated architecture, particularly to the Global South, through entities like Huawei to forge long-term economic and technological ties.
Washington’s Answer: Tokenpolitik
The analysis suggests Washington should adopt Tokenpolitik as a foreign policy doctrine, moving beyond mere export controls. This strategy would involve coordinating various government bodies, allies, and private firms to provide secure and affordable AI infrastructure to strategic partners, counteracting China's Digital Silk Road expansion.
The Link with Pax Silica
Tokenpolitik is presented as a natural evolution of Pax Silica, a U.S. initiative aimed at building a secure and resilient technology ecosystem with allied countries. This aims to transform bilateral efforts into a coherent, long-term strategic approach, with Italy recently joining this framework.
Redefining Great Power Competition
The core of Tokenpolitik lies in redefining international competition. It shifts the focus from leadership in AI models or semiconductor production to the control and development of the infrastructure that will power the next generation of artificial intelligence, impacting economic competitiveness and technological sovereignty.
A New Grammar of Power
Tokenpolitik describes an emerging phase where international power is increasingly determined by the ability to build, finance, and govern the infrastructure that drives artificial intelligence, rather than merely possessing individual technological breakthroughs.
